Wednesday, June 15, 2011

When the central bank governor and Ugandan president lock horns

Emmanuel Tumusiime Mutebile,Uganda's central bank governor doesnt give many press interviews.
But a shocker came in one major one he gave to the Financial Times of the UK.
Apparently Mutebile and the Ugandan president have fallen out. One would easily assume that giving a candid interview to a major foreign media outlet suggests that Mutebile is reaching the end of his rope with the Ugandan president.
It would appear that things are so bad between him and the Ugandan president that the only person that can listen him out is British Journalist and that he figures the end for him is nigh.
Mutebile doesnt mince words in blaming President Museveni for his fiscal indiscipline and 'marxist' approach to economic policy which portends trouble for the Ugandan economy which hither to had earned World Bank/IMF plaudits for sound macro economic policies.
As every one knows by now, the Ugandan government broke the bank the win the recently held presidential polls in which President Museveni won 68% of the bank.
The Ugandan parliament was coxed to approve over USD 250 million dollars in supplementary budgetary expenditures that many figure went down the presidential election campaign drain.
And recently, over USD 740 million dollars was spent by the Ugandan government to buy jets-without parliamentary approval, depleting Uganda's foreign reserves of two months worth of forex reserves.
Clearly, President Museveni has been having a free hand in public spending in the last couple of months and Mutebile has been fighting a lone battle against this fiscal extravagance.
The results are being felt by all Ugandans.
Double digit inflation that has risen to as high as 17% threatens to push many Ugandans below the poverty line. The Ugandan shilling is in free fall against the US dollar and no amount of central bank intervention can seem to shore up the shilling.
Matters are not being helped by rising global fuel prices and imported inflation for a country that imports most of its goods.
Mutebile seems to have lost the fight for prudent economic policy and management at Uganda's Central bank and his running to the press suggest the situation is hopeless. This is cause for serious concern to all Ugandans.
For now, I want whatever US dollars I can scrunge from my paltry Ugandan shillings.

Friday, May 6, 2011

How Osama provided Obama with a new lifeline

President Obama needed it. With polls numbers tanking and the economy heading south and his job approval ratings going under, he needed a big break.

He had recently announced his re-election bid but there was no major national success to endear Americans to him for another run in the White House.

The Republic field is not any better but still the President needed some dramatic achievement and then came along Osama Bin Laden.

Osama Bin Laden the architect of the September 11th attacks and the ideological head of the islamic extremist world had alluded capture by two preceding Presidents. Bill Clinton and George W Bush. Dubya wanted him even more badly.

It is amazing how western leaders use dramatic military conquests to boost their dismal poll ratings. France's Sarkozy hit Libya with bombs partly to reboot his diminishing presidency. For Obama, the Osama Bin Laden victory may be his single most visible achievement yet.

It reminds me of 'Wag the Dog' a movie in which a faltering presidency hatches up a civil conflict to divert attention from dismal poll ratings.

The political capital of the Osama killing for Barack Obama? Deng Xio Peng of 1970's China once remarked that it is still too early to tell the effects of the French Revolution.